Market Insights on 14th Jul 2024
· MSCI World 3627, SPX 5615, DJI 40k, Nasdaq 18397, MSCI APACxJ 75.3, FTSE ASEAN 834, Shanghai Comp 2971, CSI 3472, Hang Seng 18293, Nikkei 41237, EuroStoxx 5044, FTSE 8252, CAC 7724, Nifty 24502, Sensex 80519
·
IJR 111.29, IJH 60.4, OEF 272.65, ILCG 84.05, IUSV 90.1,
IUSG 131.9, QUAL 174.3, USMV 85.7, VYM 121.5, MTUM 199.3, DGRO 59, RSP 168.5
·
2Y UST 4.2%, 10Y UST 4.19%, 10s2s -0.01%, 2Y CGB 1.6%, 10Y CGB 2.26%, 2Y Bund 2.82%, 10Y
Bund 2.49%, 2Y JGB 0.33%, 10Y JGB 1.05%, 2Y SGB 3.25%, 10Y SGB 3.1%, LQD 109.2,
EMB 90.3, HYG 78
·
SPGSCI 572.4, XAU $2411, XAG $30.8, WTI Crude $81, Nat
Gas $2.313,
·
DXY 104.1, ASIADOLR 90.5, EUR 1.0910, JPY 157.9, GBP
1.2995, AUD 0.6784, EUR/¥ 172.34, AUD/¥ 107.3, SGD/ MYR 3.4822
·
BTC $60309, ETH $3207, XRP $0.5301, SOL $146.03, BNB $538.6,
LTC $70.1, USDC $0.9997, USDT 1.0006, DOGE 0.11368
·
VIX 12.46, NQNDDVP 815.9, NQNDMVP 953, NQFFUSLV 1584,
NQVMVUS 1858, EUR 3M Vol 5.2%, JPY 3M Vol 8.9%, GBP 3M Vol 6.15%, XAU 3M Vol
13.5%
·
Trending stocks
o Tesla
o NVIDIA
o Apple
o Meta Platforms
o Microsoft
·
Trending crypto
o BIAO
o MOGU
o DOGE
o BTC
o AMC
·
Upcoming Economic Calendar
o Existing
Home Sales
o S&P
Global US Manufacturing PMI
o S&P
Global Services
o BoC Rate
Decision
o US New Home
Sales
o US Durable
Goods Orders
o US GDP
o US Core PCE
·
Economic/ Earnings Releases
o ISM
Manufacturing PMI 48.5 lower than expected 49.2
o Eurozone
CPI 2.5% met forecast
o US ADP
Non-Farm Payroll 150k weaker than expected 163k
o Crude Oil
Inventories -3.443M much less than expected 700k
o US Unemployment
Rate 4.1% slight higher than expected 4%
o Constellation
Brand A (STZ) EPS $3.57 beat forecast $3.46
·
Last 2 weeks, global equities have been melting up
significantly with China being the only exception. Sector style does not seems
to matter whether its dividend, momentum, low volatility either. US yields have
also dropped whilst IGB, HYB, EMD all moving higher with international
sovereign yields stagnant. Commodities, FX and crypto have been a mixed bag.
Volatilities broadly unchanged except for dividend, momentum and multi-factor
US minimum volatilities
·
Seems money is flowing out from crypto into equities
lately, which is interesting as they have been moving in lockstep for some time
now. Also, its seems US economy is softening with non-farm payrolls and ISM
manufacturing numbers being less than expected which has strengthened
expectations for rate cuts.
·
Another major bank has thrown in the towel this cycle
with RBC Capital Markets raising its end-2024 S&P 500 forecast from 5300 to
5700. Whilst RBC has characterized this pivot as a “a nervous raise”, from
experience it’s not surprising as The Street forecast are typically lagging the
market cycle and they need to save face to maintain credibility. CICC looking
to expand in SEA by opening offices in countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia
due to deal slump in its home market, reinforcing the SEA growth story
·
Earnings season in 2H24 will be a big test for the
broadening of the S&P 500 rally beyond the Magnificent 7. The S&P 500
is trading around 21x forward P/E but if the top 10 stocks are excluded that
figure drops to 16.5 which implies plenty of further upside potential in the
index.
·
Some misinformation last 2 weeks with Biden apparently
pulling out from the presidential race to be replaced by Kamala Harris then
only to be debunked a few days later. Then last night, Trump conveniently had a
assassination attempt during a rally which has help him secure votes for his bid.
Sounds pretty staged and the usual distraction for the masses.
·
On a more pertinent note, BCA Research citing that a
Trump re-election would lead to corporate tax raise not cuts, which is the
popular opinion. With bond yields already over 4%, budget deficit at 7% GDP,
and the trajectory of the federal government debt being unsustainable, moderate
Republicans are expected to resist policies that could worsen the fiscal
situation.
·
Latest data from IntoTheBlock shows that BTC whales
have significantly increased by 71k BTC last week, taking advantage of the
recent dip in price. This demonstrates there is pent-up demand for coin at the
right prices. The significant drop from $70k to below $60k was primarily driven
by fears of token liquidation from defunct crypto exchange Mount Gox in compensation
for a 2014 hack. Donald’s trump meme
coin, MAGA surged more than 30% due to recent assassination attempt which ties
in well with his promise to end Biden’s “war on crypto if elected” again
demonstrating risk-on sentiment
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