Contrarian Trader on 13 Jun 2025 [CH]

 Global Markets

 

 

 

 

 

US Yield Curve & Fed Rate Monitor

 

 

 

Crypto Market Tracker 

 

 

 

Key Macro & Technicals

 

 

• 过去几周基本保持不变，美元指数下跌 1.2%，最大的变动是美元兑加元和美元兑瑞士法郎分别下跌 2.7% 和 2.4%。MSCI 世界指数和标普 500 指数也没有太大变化，分别上涨 0.7% 和 0.2%，自 2025 年 4 月以来的反弹似乎正在失去一些动力。4 小时 DI+ 线持续下跌，未来几周可能出现死亡交叉。
• 在股票市场中，最大的变动是俄罗斯指数下跌 4.6%，能源板块（通过 XLE）上涨 4.4%，而金融板块（XLF）回落 3.2%。不出所料，VIX、OVX 和 GVZ 分别回落 7.6%、13.6% 和 10.8%，但 VIX、SKEWX 和 VVIX 分别上涨 10.1% 至 17%。
• 固定收益市场总体稳定，房地产投资信托基金则涨跌互现，SPG 下跌 4.6%，而 PREI 上涨 9.4%。商品市场则出现了更多波动，波罗的海干散货指数上涨 46.1%，而 XAG / 美元和 XPT / 美元分别上涨 12.5% 和 22.4%，后者自 2014 年以来一直在约 760 至 1184 的区间内波动。最后，加密货币几乎没有变化，SOL / 美元、SHIB / 美元和 DOGE / 美元分别回落 13.8%、17% 和 21.9%。
• 6 月 8 日，瑞银预计全球经济增长将在下半年放缓，但欧洲私人信贷利差预计将保持区间震荡。经济合作与发展组织 (OECD) 本周早些时候指出，由于全面关税可能对美国经济造成冲击，增长前景越来越具有挑战性。它将其对 2025 年全球 GDP 增长的预测从之前的 3.1% 下调至 2.9%。
• 6 月 7 日，摩根士丹利认为，特朗普此前将铝进口关税提高一倍至 50% 的决定可能会推高金属价格及其用户的成本。此前，美国中西部含税铝溢价达到每吨 1279 美元，比特朗普于 5 月 6 日宣布计划提高铝和钢铁关税的 6 月 6 日上涨了 54%。该措施迄今为止今年已飙升超过 160%。
• 6 月 2 日，中国强调，美国 “严重违反” 了他们的贸易休战协议，并将采取强有力措施维护自身利益。北京方面表示，违规行为包括停止向中国公司销售计算机芯片设计软件、警告不要使用华为制造的芯片以及取消中国学生的签证。此外，中国更倾向于先在较低级别达成协议，然后再提交给美国总统。
• 因此，自 2025 年 5 月以来的反弹似乎在中美贸易协议和滞胀 / 衰退担忧方面都存在不稳定基础。根据最近的经验，明显的市场强势可能会在最轻微的发展或看法变化中消失。
• 6 月 7 日，特朗普表示他与马斯克的关系已经结束，并警告说，如果马斯克资助反对支持总统全面税收和支出法案的共和党人的美国民主党人，将会有 “严重后果”。马斯克谴责特朗普的法案是 “令人作呕的罪行”，该法案上个月勉强通过众议院，目前正在参议院审议，特朗普的共和党同僚正在考虑对其进行修改。无党派分析人士估计，这项措施将在 10 年内使 36.2 万亿美元的美国债务增加 2.4 万亿美元，这令财政鹰派立法者担忧。马斯克还宣布，美国是时候成立一个新的政党来 “代表中间的 80%” 了。
• 5 月 26 日，明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行行长卡什卡里警告说，特朗普的贸易关税造成的供应冲击可能会支撑通货膨胀并抑制增长 —— 形成滞胀局面。在谈到最近美国国债收益率上升时，卡什卡里指出，投资者正在开始重新评估对美国的投资，收益率的变化可能代表着一种新的全球模式。
• 5 月 25 日，芝加哥联邦储备银行行长古尔斯比也强调了由于特朗普的政策而存在的滞胀风险，并表示美联储可能会推迟对利率的任何调整。许多市场、经济和金融专家已经开始公开警告，如果滞胀不发生，几个月内就会出现经济衰退。市场预计美联储今年将降息两次，下次行动要到 2025 年 9 月才会发生。
• 5 月 24 日，最高法院在特朗普诉威尔科斯案中的最新举动正在加剧市场对美国扩大行政权力日益增长的影响的关注。策略师阿尼克特・沙阿指出，更广泛地转向 “单一行政理论”（特朗普政府所采用的法律原则）可能会从根本上重塑美国治理，并为金融市场注入更高的政策风险。该理论认为，总统对行政部门拥有完全控制权，包括解雇独立机构领导人以及否决国会支出决定的权力。杰富瑞公司认为，如果这种解释获得进一步的法律支持，它可能会使特朗普能够更自由地实施关税，取消各行业的监管，而无需通常的行政审查，并更换传统上不受政治压力保护的机构负责人。

Contrarian Updates on 13 Jun 2025 [EN]

 

Global Markets

 

 

 

 

 

US Yield Curve & Fed Rate Monitor

 

 

 

Crypto Market Tracker 

 

 

 

Key Macro & Technicals

 

 

Market Commentary 

·         Last few weeks have been unchanged with USD Index -1.2% amd biggest mover being $/CAD and $/CHF which dropped 2.7% and 2.4%. MSCI World and SPX haven’t moved much either with both +0.7% and +0.2% respectively and it seems the relief rally since Apr 2025 losing some steam. 4H DI+ line keeps falling and there might possiblity of a death cross in coming weeks.

 

·         Within equity space, the biggest mover has been Russian Index -4.6 with energy sector via XLE +4.4% whlist financials XLF has pulled back -3.2% Unsurprisingly, VIX,  OVX and GVZ receded 7.6%, 13.6% and 10.8% but VIX, SKEWX and VVIX jumped 10.1 – 17%.

 

·         Fixed income generally steady whilst REITs were mixed with SPG -4.6% whilst PREI +9.4% respectively.   Commodity markets saw more action Baltic Dry Index +46.1% whilst XAG/$ and XPT/$ both rallying 12.5% and 22.4% with the latter trading within the congestion channel circa 760 – 1184 since 2014. Finally, crypto hardly moved with SOL/$, SHIB/$ and DOGE/$ pulling back 13.8%, 17% and 21.9%.

 

·         On 08/06, UBS sees global growth to slow in the 2^nd half but European private credit spreads are tipped to remain rangebound. The OECD flagged ealirer this week that the growth outlook is increasingly challegnging due to potential headwinds from sweeping tariffs denting the US economy. It slashed its projection for global GDP growth for 2025 to 2.9% from prior estimate 3.1%

 

·         On 07/06, Morgan Stanley weighed in that Trump’s decision to double tariffs on aluminium imports to 50% ealirer will likely drive up prices of the metal and costs for its users. Earlier, the US Midwest duty-paid aluminimum premium reached $1,279/ metric ton, representing a 54% spike from 06/06 when Trump announced his plans to hike alumnium and steel tariffs from 05/06. The measure has soared more than 160% so far YTD

 

·         On 02/06, China highlighted that the US has “severly violated” their trade truce and will take strong measures to defend its interests. Beijing said voliations include stopping sales of computer chip design software to Chinese companies, warnings against using chip made by Huawei and cancelling visa for Chinese students. Also, the China prefers that agreements be done at a lower level first before they reach the desk of the US president.

 

·         As such, its seems the relief rally since May 2025 has shaky foundations on both the China-US trade deal and stagflation/ recessionary fears. From recent experience, the apparent market strength could disappear on the slightest developments or change in perceptions.

 

·         On 07/06, Trump said his relationship with Elon is over and warned there would be “serious consequencies” if Musk funds US Democrats running against Republicans who vote for the president’s sweeping tax and spending bill. Musk has denounced Trump’s bill as a “disgusting abomination” with said bill narrowly passing the House last month and is new before the Senate, where Trumps’s fellow Republicans are considering making changes. Non-partisan analysts estimate thae measure would add $2.4T to the $36.2T US debt over 10 years which worry fiscal hawk lawmakers. Musk also declared it time for a new political party in US the to “represent the 80% in the middle”.

 

·         On 26/05, Minneapolis Fed Kashkari warned that supply shocks stemming from Trump’s trade tariffs stood to underpin inflation and dampen growth – presenting a stagflationary scenario. Speaking on the recent increase in Treasury ields, Kashkari noted that investors were beginning to reassess investing in the US and shifting yields could represent a new global paradigm.

 

·         On 25/05, Chicago Fed Austan Goolsbee also highlighted stagflation risk due to Trump’s policies and said Fed likely to be putting off any changes to interest rates. Many market, economic and financial experts have begun publically warning of a recession within few months if stagflation doesn’t happen. Markets expect the Fed will cut twice this year with the next move not happening until Sep 2025.

 

·         On 24/05, the Supreme Court’s latest move in Trump v. Wilcos is sharpening market focus on the growing implication of expanded executive authority in the US. Strategist Aniket Shah flagged that a broader shift toward the “Unitary Executive Theory” a legal doctrine embraced by the Trump administration could materially reshape US governance and inject higher policy risk into financial markets. The theory posits that the president has sole contorl over the executive branch, including the power to fire leaders of independent agencies and override congressional spending decisions. Jefferies argues that if this intepretation gains further legal traction, it could empower Trump to more freely implement tariffs, deregulate sectors without the usual adminstrative checks and replace head of agnecies traditionally shielded from political pressure.