Special Update on 10 Apr 2025

Global Markets

 

 

 

 

 

Key Technicals

 

 

 

Market Commentary 

·         On 09/04, Trump has granted 90 day moratorium on tariffs for all countries except China at 104% causing S&P 500 to surge +486 points to hit nearly 5000 level

·         Whilst Trade War 1.0 did see similar moves on 02/18 with double rally making a new high 2940 on 10/18, this turned out to be a a trap as the S&P then plunged 20%

·         History might repeat itself if Trump rolls back the China tariffs but that is not certain. Given that the latest bull market has been +3Y since Ukraine War 2022 the smart move to use the rally to exit US equities

·         Typically such Fibo retracements have been between 38.2% - 78.6% so targeting 50 – 61.8% would make sense as an exit level

·         Can then build up dry powder for the eventual bear market where you can pick your preferred securities at bargain prices