·
MSCI World 3511, SPX 5460, DJI 39119, Nasdaq 17723, MSCI
APACxJ 71.9, FTSE ASEAN 798, Shanghai
Comp 2967, CSI 3461, Hang Seng 17722, Nikkei 39557, EuroStoxx 4892, FTSE 8164,
CAC 7479, Nifty 24010, Sensex 79032
·
IJR 106.6, IJH 58.5, OEF 264.3, ILCG 81.4, IUSV 88.1,
IUSG 127.5, QUAL 170.6, USMV 83.9, VYM 118.6, MTUM 194.87, DGRO 57.6, RSP 164.3
·
2Y UST 4.75%, 10Y UST 4.39%, 2s10s -0.36%, 2Y CGB 1.63%, 10Y CGB 2.22%, 2Y Bund 2.83%,
10Y Bund 2.49%, 2Y JGB 0.35%, 10Y JGB 1.03%, LQD 107.1, EMB 88.5, HYG 77.1
·
SPGSCI 578.4, XAU $2326, XAG $29.4, WTI Crude $81.5, Nat
Gas $2.601,
·
DXY 105.85, ASIADOLR 90.21, EUR 1.0714, JPY 160.88,
GBP 1.2644, AUD 0.6669, EUR/¥ 172.34, AUD/¥ 107.3
·
BTC $61592, ETH $3391, XRP $0.4727, SOL $141.17, BNB
$575.6, LTC $75, USDC $1.0019, USDT 0.9982, DOGE 0.1223
·
VIX 12.44, NQNDDVP 792.8, NQNDMVP 921.7, NQFFUSLV
1555.3, NQVMVUS 1815.1, EUR 3M Vol 5.3%, JPY 3M Vol 8.76%, GBP 3M Vol 6.15%,
XAU 3M Vol 13.64%
·
Economic Calendar
o ISM
Manufacturing PMI
o Eurozone
CPI
o Fed Chair
Powell Speaks
o US ADP
Non-Farm Payroll
o Crude Oil
Inventories
o FOMC
Meeting Minutes
o US
Unemployment Rate
·
Earnings Calendar
o Constellation
Brands A (STZ)
·
After a month, US equities have moved higher with S&P
500 hitting 5500 level whilst European stocks have remained unchanged and mixed
bag for Chinese equities with Shanghai composite, CSI 300 around the same
levels whilst Hang Seng has dropped. US Treasury yields have come off a bit and
yield curve still inverted whilst commodities remain unchanged too. Some DXY
strength moving from 104.64 to 105.85 and risk taking with AUD/¥ moving up 3
big figures.
·
BTC has pulled well back from $70k psychological
barrier to $61592 today and other coins have followed suit. The BTC drop
suggest that traders are sceptical over the timing of interest rate cuts by the
Fed. VIX unsurprisingly dropped given move higher in US stocks and other FX
vols remains the same
·
Redid the Fibo price extension and there are price
clusters around 5835 – 5935 which suggest that should be the potential peak for
the S&P 500. If those levels are broken through, next price cluster 6339 – 6372,
which is pretty significant as they tend to sit near the 1.414 and 1.618
extension levels.
·
Asian stocks lately have been reacting to rate cut
bets with tech stocks gaining along NVDA bullish sentiment. Additionally,
cooling labor markets are encouraging these bets with number of Americans
filing for first-time unemployment benefits rising to 229k (Jun 24) from 221k
(May 24) which is well above forecast of 220k.
·
Citibank now expects Fed to begin cutting rate in Sep
2024 rather than Jul 2024 with 75 bps of total cuts for the rest of the year.
Fed Kashkari also saying that “it’ a reasonable prediction that the Fed will
cut rate once this year waiting until Dec to do it”. Meanwhile, ex-PIMCO El-Erian
is saying that Fed must cut interest rates sooner rather than later as its
data-dependent approach lacks strategic view depriving fixed income markets of
clear guidance resulting in volatility in US Treasury yields.
·
China opened an anti-dumping investigation into
imported prok and its by-products from EU, targeted at Spain, Netherlands and
Denmark in response to their EV export curbs. Other industries which are being
investigated is pork, dairy, cars, brandy and plastics.
·
Peter Brandt hitting headlines again with arguments
for Bitcoin relating to the eventual destruction of fiat currency units by comparing
BTC with M1 money supply. John Bollinger also weighed in with his adage that “the
bigger the base, the higher in space” in referenced to extended periods of
consolidation in BTC.
·
Micron reported better-than-expected quarterly results
but still slides down, whilst casino stocks push the consumer sector higher led
by MGM Resorts and Caesar Entertainment. Levi Strauss slumped 15% due to
earning miss, Walgreens Boots fell 22% after poor earning guidance and
McCormick stock rose 4% after earnings beat. New orders for key US manufactured
capital goods expectedly fell in May suggesting that business spending on
equipment weakened in 2Q as borrowing costs remain elevated
